The End of the Pretence: Why a Hydrocarbons Law Cannot Legitimize the Plunder of a Nation

For decades, the language of law and contract has been used as a velvet glove to hide a theft. Governments and corporations found a comfortable fiction: draft a sectoral hydrocarbon law, ink production-sharing agreements, and claim that all flows from extraction to export rest on legal foundations. But legality is not a costume you wear to hide lawlessness. A law that governs production does not, and cannot by itself, legitimize the commercial expropriation of a nation’s wealth. When sale, transfer and payment are permitted in practice while the commercial architecture — the code, the institutions, the checks and balances — is absent, what remains is not commerce: it is pillage with paperwork.

In Equatorial Guinea the gap between extraction and accountable exchange is not a mistake; it is the mechanism by which public wealth is siphoned into private vaults abroad. Hydrocarbons legislation may set the technical terms of production and the state’s share on paper, but when there is no independent commercial law, no transparent registry, and no functioning public audit — when contracts and exports are channelled under opaquely authorized decrees and payments land in offshore accounts — then the state’s signature becomes an instrument to enable transnational plunder. That signature cannot cloak illegality. It magnifies it.

This is not rhetorical exaggeration. It is a sequence of legal and factual claims that can be demonstrated and verified:

1. Structural Legal Void: A legitimate market requires legal frameworks that govern contracting, sales, fiscal responsibility, customs, and commercial dispute resolution. A hydrocarbon statute that addresses extraction but leaves the rules of sale, transfer and transparency undefined or discretionary produces legal vacuums that empower arbitrary acts.

2. Institutional Capture: Where executive fiat substitutes for independent adjudication, where approvals are ministerial and unrecorded, the institutions necessary to verify, register and audit commercial transactions are absent or corruptible. The result is that the state apparatus rubber-stamps transfers that never meaningfully benefit the population.

3. Offshore Flows and Beneficial Owners: Payments routed to accounts in banking secrecy jurisdictions, layered through opaque corporate structures, and controlled ultimately by hidden beneficial owners are hallmarks of illicit financial flows. They create a trail that is difficult to follow but not impossible — and the existence of such trails is prima facie evidence of misappropriation that should trigger forensic inquiry.

4. Violations of International Standards: The UNCAC, OECD guidance, AML frameworks and international norms on extractive-sector transparency require that resource revenues be subject to public accounting, beneficial ownership disclosure, and mechanisms that prevent conflict of interest and corruption. Where states fail to meet these obligations, the international community has both the right and the duty to act.

5. Moral and Political Legitimacy: Legitimacy is not a bookkeeper’s term alone. It is the social contract between rulers and the ruled. When public wealth is removed without trace and the people receive none of its benefits in health, education, infrastructure or security, the political compact erodes. The regime’s claim to govern in the people’s interest becomes empty.

The remedy cannot be private vigilantism or theatrical denunciation. The remedy must be rigorous, legal, and global:

• Forensic Audit: A coordinated, independent audit of all extractive-sector contracts, production volumes, and export receipts, performed by a reputable international auditing body with access to banking records via mutual legal assistance.
• Beneficial Ownership Disclosure: Mandatory and immediate publication of beneficial owners of all entities involved in extraction, export, trading, and midstream operations.
• Targeted Asset Tracing and Recovery: Identification and restraint of assets linked to illicit flows in foreign jurisdictions through mutual legal assistance and civil recovery processes.
• Sanctions and Visa Measures: Carefully targeted sanctions against individuals credibly implicated in large-scale diversion of public funds, consistent with human-rights and anti-corruption law.
• Judicial Mechanisms: Referral of well-documented cases to competent criminal and civil jurisdictions where evidence supports prosecution or restitution claims.
• Transparent Public Accounting: Publication of all state hydrocarbon revenue flows, allocation of funds, and spending audits for citizen oversight and parliamentary review.

If the state’s apparatus has been used to simulate commercial legitimacy while facilitating outflows of national wealth, the international community and financial institutions are not innocent bystanders; they are potential facilitators. Banks, traders, legal advisers, and logistics firms that accept payments and cargo without adequate due diligence shoulder complicity when their acceptance enables theft.

The enforcement community — financial regulators, law enforcement, and anti-corruption agencies — must move from reluctant observation to decisive action.

To those who argue that contracts and laws are enough to confer legality I say this: legality is a living structure that depends on rules, institutions and enforceable obligations. A contract signed into a vacuum of commercial law, executed through shadowed channels and paid into secrecy jurisdictions to private and individual bank accounts, cannot convert theft into trade. The instruments of law cannot be deployed as instruments of deception without being reclassified for what they are.

This is not a call for vendetta. It is an invitation to accountability. It is a legal, moral, and civic imperative: to restore the link between a country’s natural wealth and the well-being of its people. To the international legal community, to financial regulators, to civil society, to investors concerned with ESG and rule of law: the facts are in plain sight. The time to act is now.

And to the citizens whose lives are eroded by emaciated public services and hollowed-out institutions: document. Preserve. Demand transparency. Use the law, the global mechanisms, the media, and peaceful civic action to reclaim what was never theirs to give.

This article is not theatre. It is not partisan performance. It is a legal and ethical dossier in narrative form — meant to mobilize lawful actors to apply the instruments available under international law to end the simulation of market legitimacy and restore real accountability. The rule of law cannot coexist with legalized plunder. When the instruments of commerce are used as tools of theft, those instruments must be reclaimed for justice.

Cameroon at a Political Crossroads: Maurice Kamto’s Exclusion, and Brenda Biya’s Shocking Plea

Cameroon finds itself at a critical political crossroads ahead of the presidential election scheduled for October 12, 2025. After more than four decades of Paul Biya’s rule—placing him among the longest-serving heads of state in the world—several emerging dynamics are shaking the once-stable consensus of continuity. In this scenario, the exclusion of opposition leader Maurice Kamto from the presidential race, and the shocking and confirmed public call by Brenda Biya, the president’s daughter, urging Cameroonians to “remove” her father from power, have become catalysts intensifying public tension, political debate, and uncertainty.

⚖️ Maurice Kamto: A Forced Withdrawal of the Opposition

Maurice Kamto, leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), has in recent years established himself as the most credible challenger to Paul Biya. In the 2018 elections, he secured about 14% of the vote according to official results and was widely seen as the leading figure of the opposition.

In 2025, Kamto once again submitted his candidacy to challenge Biya. However, it was rejected by the electoral commission (ELECAM) on July 26, citing that the MRC had boycotted the 2020 municipal and local elections, which—according to ELECAM—rendered the party ineligible to nominate a candidate.

This rejection was later upheld by the Constitutional Council on August 5, which dismissed Kamto’s appeals.

Rather than calming the political scene, this decision only increased tensions: accusations of arbitrariness, questions about the transparency of the electoral process, spontaneous protests, increased police deployments, and international concern over the legitimacy of the upcoming vote.

🗳️ Electoral and Political Context: Biya’s Age, Health, and a Manipulated Calendar

Paul Biya has been in power since 1982. In 2008, a constitutional amendment eliminated term limits, enabling him to stand for re-election indefinitely.

In 2025, at the age of 92, his candidacy raises many questions among citizens and observers about his physical and cognitive ability to govern effectively.

To add to the controversy, the electoral calendar was manipulated: municipal and regional elections, which should have occurred before the presidential vote, were postponed to 2026. Critics argue that this change violates the Constitution, especially in the absence of exceptional, well-justified circumstances.

With Kamto blocked and the absence of a widely recognized strong opponent, the race is tilted toward a predetermined victory for Biya, albeit at the cost of growing legitimacy concerns.

🧨 Brenda Biya: Outspoken Dissent or Calculated Messaging?

A confirmed video statement from Brenda Biya, daughter of President Paul Biya, has sent shockwaves through the political sphere. In the video, widely circulated on platforms like TikTok, Brenda urges Cameroonians not to vote for her father in the upcoming 2025 elections—going so far as to call for his removal from power.

This declaration is particularly striking given that family dissent within the presidential circle is extremely rare in Cameroon's political landscape.

🔍 Declaration Confirmed

In her own words, Brenda Biya not only calls for her father’s ousting but also states she is severing ties with her family due to alleged mistreatment. She accuses the regime of decades of misery, unemployment, and stagnation.

Her words have sparked massive public reaction both domestically and internationally. The declaration is now confirmed by multiple reputable media outlets and has been widely covered.

⚠️ Political Implications

1. A Symbolic Internal Fracture

A direct family member speaking out against the head of state is unprecedented in modern Cameroonian politics. This exposes cracks within Biya’s circle of loyalty and power.

2. Potential Impact on Public Opinion

To many citizens, Brenda’s statement carries emotional and symbolic weight, as it comes from someone presumed to be among the president’s closest allies. Her words could become a catalyst for mass discontent and political mobilization.

3. Government Reaction

So far, the government has not issued an official response, nor confirmed any retaliatory actions. It’s likely that authorities are closely monitoring the situation to gauge its fallout.

4. October 2025 Elections

The timing of Brenda’s statement couldn’t be more critical, as Biya seeks yet another term amidst mounting criticism over age, health, fragmented opposition, and allegations of democratic backsliding.

💣 Broader Implications and Risks

🟥 Legitimacy at Stake

Kamto’s exclusion—and Biya’s likely unchallenged path to reelection—undermines both national and international perceptions of electoral legitimacy.

🟥 Protests and Repression

Kamto has labeled his exclusion a “political crime” against the people. Public backlash, especially in major cities like Yaoundé and Douala, could intensify. Authorities may respond with mass arrests, censorship, or violent crackdowns.

🟥 Institutional Collapse

If electoral, judicial, and legislative institutions are viewed as mere extensions of the executive, their credibility and function could rapidly deteriorate. This raises broader concerns about checks and balances and the rule of law.

🟥 Domino Effect Within the Regime

A public rejection from within the president’s own family—especially a daughter—may embolden others in the regime to speak out or break ranks, potentially triggering internal political crises.

🧭 What Political Future Lies Ahead?

🤝 Opposition Unity?

Kamto, Cabral Libii, Akere Muna, Issa Tchiroma, and others must decide whether they can form a genuine coalition and sustain grassroots momentum even as institutional doors remain shut.

👑 Staged or Real Succession?

If Biya remains a candidate, succession becomes a key question. Is a generational transition being prepared? Could Brenda or another family member be a hidden successor? Or is this yet another effort to perpetuate Biya’s symbolic dominance through surrogates?

🌍 International Pressure

Organizations like Human Rights Watch, the UN, and the African Union may escalate pressure if political rights continue to be suppressed. Aid restrictions or diplomatic sanctions could follow.

🧨 Institutional Crisis

If the October elections are widely seen as illegitimate, civil disobedience, non-violent resistance, and governance breakdowns could erupt, especially in conflict-prone Anglophone regions, where distrust in the state already runs deep.

🪞 Reflection: A New Era or the Same Old Regime?

The political situation in Cameroon in 2025 raises a key question:

Are we witnessing the dawn of democratic renewal, or just the repackaging of old authoritarianism?

On one hand, civic mobilization, regime fatigue, and even internal dissent—now including voices from within the presidential family—suggest the people are hungry for change.

On the other hand, the regime’s grip on power remains intact, sustained by its control over institutions, the media, security forces, and the manipulation of electoral law.

✅ Conclusion

As Cameroon approaches the 2025 elections, the nation stands between the possible and the impossible. Maurice Kamto embodies the hope of those who yearn for genuine democracy—but his exclusion highlights the immense challenges of confronting a deeply entrenched, neocolonial regime propped up by China, France, Germany, the United States, and the broader European Union.

Brenda Biya’s declaration may shift the symbolic landscape—but the question remains whether it will trigger real transformation.

What’s clear is that Cameroon must decide whether it will continue down the path of authoritarian entrenchment or step boldly into an era of political renewal. This choice will not only determine who governs, but also what kind of legitimacy, justice, and dignity defines Cameroon’s identity in the years to come.

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